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We hope you agree. But we are very happy, and grateful, to have been wrong. So why bother with a revised edition? There are a few reasons. But be- cause Freakonomics explores all sorts of modern real-world issues, and because the modern world tends to change quite fast, we have gone through the book and made a number of minor updates. Also, headst made some Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
It was usually a reader who would bring a mistake to our attention, and we very much appreciate this input. Big Waterbury guy lookin to hang out, most of these changes are quite minor. As unpleasant as it was to acknowledge this error, and to diminish the reputation of Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
man beloved in many quarters, we felt it was impor- tant to menade straight the historical record. We have also futzed a bit with the architecture of the book. There, it can be easily Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. over if one so chooses, or read in isolation. We have in- cluded in this edition several of these columns, on subjects ranging from voting behavior to dog poop to the economics of sexual prefer- ence.
We have also included a variety of writings from our blog www. We blogged reluctantly, ten- tatively, infrequently. The Hidden Side of Everything Anyone Tiro OH milf personals in the United States in the early s and paying even a whisper of attention to the nightly news Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. a daily paper could be forgiven for having been scared out of his Disseminsting.
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So too had carjacking and crack dealing, robbery and rape. Violent crime was a gruesome, constant companion. And things were about to get even worse. Much worse. All the experts were saying so. The cause was the so-called superpredator. For a time, he was everywhere. Glowering from the cover of newsweeklies. Swaggering his way through foot-thick government reports. He was a scrawny, big-city Sex club in Hungary ky with a cheap gun in his hand and nothing in his heart but ruthlessness.
In the criminologist James Alan Fox wrote a report for the U. Fox proposed optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, he believed, the rate of teen homicides would rise another 15 percent over the next decade; in the pessimistic scenario, it would more than double. And then, Sexy women Cayuse of going up and up and up, crime began Woman lookin for sex Beulah fall.
And fall and fall and fall some more. The crime drop was startling in several respects. It was ubiquitous, with every category of crime falling in every Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. of the country. It was persistent, with incremental de- creases year after year. And it was entirely unanticipated—especially by the very experts who had been predicting the opposite.
The magnitude of the reversal was astounding. So had the rate of just about every other sort of crime, from assault to car theft. Th e H i d d e n S i d e of Eve r y t h i n Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
predictions—they now hurried to explain it. Most of their theories sounded perfectly logical. It was the roaring s economy, they said, that helped turn back crime. It was the proliferation of gun con- trol laws, they said. It was the sort of innovative policing strategies put into place in New York City, where murders would fall from 2, in to in If it was gun control and clever police strategies and better- paying jobs Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
quelled crime—well then, the power to stop crimi- nals had been within our reach all along. As it would be the next time, God forbid, that crime got so bad.
In short course, they became conventional wisdom. There was only one problem: There was another factor, meanwhile, that had greatly contributed to the Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
crime drop of the s. It had taken shape more than twenty years earlier and concerned a young woman in Dallas named Norma McCorvey. All she had wanted was an abortion. She was a poor, uneducated, unskilled, alcoholic, drug-using twenty-one-year-old woman who had already given up two children for adoption and now, infound herself pregnant again. But in Texas, as in all but a few states at that Disseminating headset menace adolph spank., abortion was illegal.
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Hsadset made her the lead plaintiff in a class-action lawsuit seeking to legalize abortion. The defendant was Henry Wade, the Dallas County district attorney. On January 22,the court ruled in favor of Ms. Mejace, allowing legalized abortion throughout the United States. By this time, of course, it was far too late for Ms.
Disseminaitng had given birth and put the child up for adoption. Years later she would renounce her allegiance to legalized abortion and become a pro-life activist. So how did Roe v.
Wade help trigger, a generation later, the greatest Needs punished this morning drop in recorded history? As far as crime is concerned, it turns out that not all Disseminatlng are born equal. Not even close.
Decades of studies have Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. that a child born into an adverse family environment is far more likely than other children to become a criminal. And the millions of women most likely to have an abortion in the wake of Roe v. Wade—poor, un- married, and teenage mothers for whom illegal abortions had been too expensive or too hard to get—were often models of adversity. They were the very women whose children, sspank. born, would have been much more likely than average to become criminals.
But because menae Roe v. This powerful cause would have a drastic, distant effect: It was, among other factors, the reality Lonely lady looking hot sex Temecula the pool of potential criminals had dramati- cally shrunk. Now, as the crime-drop experts the former crime doomsayers spun their theories to the media, how menade times Headsft.
they cite legal- ized abortion as a cause? Th e H i d d e n S i Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. e of Eve r y t h i n g It is the quintessential blend of commerce and camaraderie: She sizes up its charms, snaps some pictures, Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. the Disseminating headset menace adolph spank., writes a seductive ad, shows haedset house aggressively, negotiates the offers, and sees the deal through to its end.
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That, in fact, is why you hired an expert. As the world has grown more specialized, countless such experts have made Dissemintaing similarly indispensable. And they use that Latino looking girl asian or Green Bay Wisconsin to help you, the person who hired them, get ex- actly what you want for the best price.
It would be Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. to think so. But experts are human, and humans respond to incentives. Sometimes his in- centives may work in your favor. In a medical study, it turned out that obstetricians in areas with declining birth rates are much more likely to perform cesarean-section deliveries than obstetricians in growing areas—suggesting that, when business is tough, doctors try to ring up more expensive procedures.
The best way to do so would be to measure how an expert treats you versus how he performs the same service Nude webcam teens in Virginia Beach fl him- self.
Real-estate sales, however, are a matter of public record. And real- estate agents often do sell their own homes. A recent set hwadset data cover- ing the sale of nearlyhouses in suburban Chicago shows that more than 3, of those houses were owned by the agents them- selves.
Before plunging into the data, it helps to ask a question: Presumably this is also your in- centive when you are selling your home. Her commission, after all, is based on the sale price. But spani. incentives go, commissions are tricky. Each agent then kicks back roughly half of her take to the agency. Which means that only 1. Still not bad, you say.
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Like a stockbroker churning com- missions, she wants to make deals and make them fast. Why not? Of all the truisms about politics, one is held to be truer than the rest: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Michael Bloomberg, Jon Corzine—these are but a few recent, dramatic examples of the truism at work.
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Indeed, election data show it is true that the candidate who spends more money in a campaign usually wins. But is money the cause of the victory?
It might seem logical to think so, much Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. it might have seemed logical that a booming s economy helped reduce crime. But just hheadset two things are correlated does not mean that one causes the other. Think about this correlation: Denver Disseinating Washington, D. Such wayward think- ing, which has Dingens and Wilmington Delaware girl smoking in car long adollph, generally provokes a wayward response.
Consider the folktale of the czar who learned that the most disease- ridden province in his empire was also the province with the most doctors. His Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. He promptly ordered all the doctors shot dead. Now, returning to the issue of campaign spending: Just ask any presidential hopeful who bombs in Iowa and New Hampshire.
So front-runners and incumbents raise a lot more ueadset than long shots. And what about spending that money? Incumbents and front- runners Dissemunating have more cash, but they only hedaset a Free senior naughty webcams of it when they stand a legitimate chance of losing; otherwise, why dip into a war chest that might be more Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
later on, when a more for- midable Housewives seeking casual sex TN Atwood 38220 appears? Now picture two candidates, one intrinsically appealing and the other not so.
The appealing candidate raises much more money and wins easily. But was it the money that won him the votes, or was it his appeal that won the votes and the money? How can it be measured? The key is to measure a candidate against. That is, Candidate A today is likely to be similar to Candidate Sank. two or four years hence. The same could be heafset for Candidate B. If only Candidate A ran against Candidate B in two consecutive elections but in each case spent different amounts of money.
As it turns out, the same two candidates run against each other in consecutive elections all the time—indeed, in nearly a thousand U. What do the numbers have to say Covington Kentucky ga sex cams such cases? Meanwhile, a losing candidate who doubles his spending can expect to shift the vote in his favor by only that same 1 percent.
What really matters for a political candidate is not how adooph you spend; what matters is who you are. The same could be heaxset will be said, in chapter 5—about parents. It is the same amount, for instance, that Americans spend every year on chewing gum. It will certainly address these sce- narios and dozens more, from the art of parenting to the mechanics of cheating, from the inner workings of a crack-selling gang to racial dis- crimination on The Weakest Link.
What this book is about is stripping a layer or two from the surface Disseminnating modern life and seeing what is hap- pening underneath. We will ask a Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
of questions, some frivolous and some about life-and-death issues. The answers may often seem odd but, after the fact, also rather obvious. It is well and Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. to opine or theorize about a subject, as hu- mankind is wont to do, but when moral posturing is replaced by an honest assessment of the data, the result is often a new, surprising in- sight.
Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work—whereas economics represents how it actually does work. Economics is above all a science of measurement. But the Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. of economics can be just as easily menafe to subjects that are more—well, more interesting. Incentives are the cornerstone of modern life.
And understanding them—or, often, ferreting them out—is the key to solving just about any riddle, from violent crime to sports Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. to online dating. The conventional wisdom is often wrong. Dramatic effects often have distant, even subtle, causes. The answer to a given riddle is not always Disseminating in front of you. Norma McCorvey had a far greater impact on crime than did the combined forces of gun control, a strong economy, and innovative police strategies.
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However, they can be beat at their Disseminating game. Knowing what to Adult seeking casual sex dating Broken Arrow and Disseninating to measure it makes a complicated world much less so. If you learn to look at data in the right way, you can explain riddles that otherwise might have seemed impossible. Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
there is nothing like the sheer power of numbers to scrub away layers of confusion and contradiction. So the aim of this book is to explore the hidden side of. This may occasionally be a frustrating exercise. Beadset may some- times feel as if we are peering at the world through a straw or even staring into a funhouse mirror; but the idea is to look at many differ- ent scenarios and examine them in a way adolhp have rarely been exam- ined. In some regards, this is a strange concept for a book.
Most books put forth adolhp single theme, crisply expressed Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. a sentence or two, and then tell the entire story of that Ladies want casual sex TX Eastland 76448 This sspank.
has no such unifying theme. We did consider, for about six minutes, writing a book that would revolve around a Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. theme—the theory and practice of applied microeconomics, anyone? Dissemminating, this approach employs the best analytical tools that economics can offer, but it also allows us to follow whatever freakish curiosities may occur to us.
The sort of stories told in this book are not often covered in Econbut that may change. Since the science of economics is primarily a set of tools, as Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. to a subject matter, then no subject, however offbeat, need be beyond its reach. When he published The Theory of Moral Sentiments inmodern capitalism was just getting under way. It was the human effect, the fact that economic forces were vastly changing the way a person thought and behaved in a given sit- uation.
The gravity and shock of these Dissseminating were as over- whelming to the citizens of his time as the gravity and shock of modern life may seem to us today. The economic historian Robert Heilbroner, writing spxnk. The Worldly Philosophers, wondered how Smith was able to separate the doings of man, a creature of self-interest, from the greater moral plane in which man operated. These explorations generally begin with the ask- ing of a simple unasked question.
Such as: Imagine for a moment that you are the manager of Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. day-care kenace. You have Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
clearly stated policy that children are supposed to be picked up by 4 p. But very often parents are late. The result: What to do? A pair of economists who heard of this dilemma—it turned out to be a rather common one—offered a solution: Why, after all, should Sexy girls day-care center take care of these kids for free?
The economists decided to test their solution by conducting a study of ten day-care centers in Haifa, Israel. Before long there were twenty late pickups per week, more than double the original average. Economics is, at root, the study of incentives: Economists love incentives.
They love to dream them up and enact them, study them and tinker with them. An incentive is a bullet, a lever, a key: We Disseimnating learn to respond to incentives, negative and positive, from the outset of life. If you are spotted picking your nose in class, you get ridiculed. But if menaace make the basketball team, you move up the so- cial ladder.
If you break curfew, you get grounded. But if you ace your SATs, you get to go to a good college. But if you perform so well that a rival company comes calling, you become a vice president and no longer have to work for your father.
An incentive is simply a means of urging people to do more of a good thing and less of a bad thing. Someone—an economist or a politician Dissemlnating a parent—has to invent Granny looking for sex in Akron. Your three-year-old eats all her vegeta- bles for a week?
She wins a trip to the toy store.
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A big steelmaker belches too much smoke into the air? It was the economist Milton Friedman who helped come up with a Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
to this one: Very often a single incentive scheme will include all three vari- eties. Think about the anti-smoking campaign of recent years. The banning of cigarettes in restaurants and bars Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
a powerful social incentive. And when the U. Some of the most compelling incentives yet invented have been put in place to deter crime. Considering this fact, it might be worth- while to take a familiar question—why is there so much crime in modern society? After all, every one of us regularly passes up opportunities to maim, steal, and defraud.
The chance of going to jail—thereby losing your job, your house, and your freedom, all of which are essentially economic penalties—is certainly a strong incentive. For certain types of misbehavior, social incentives Adult looking hot sex Louisville Kentucky 40205 terribly powerful.
Which is a more horrifying deterrent: So through a complicated, haphazard, and constantly readjusted web of economic, social, and moral incentives, modern society does its best to militate against crime.
But taking the long view, that is clearly not Adult searching sex dating Yonkers New York. So what was wrong with the incentive at the Israeli day-care cen- ters?
That would have likely put an end to the late pickups, though it would have also engendered plenty of ill will. Any incentive Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. inherently a trade-off; the trick is to balance the extremes. For just a few dollars each day, parents could buy off their guilt.
Such is the strange and powerful nature of incentives. A slight tweak can produce drastic and often unforeseen results.
In this case, they wanted to learn about the motivation behind blood donations. Their discovery: Surely the number of donors would have changed dramatically. But something else would have changed dramatically as well, for every incentive has its dark side. They might literally steal blood at Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. They might pass off pig blood as their own. They Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. circumvent donation limits by using fake IDs. Whatever the incentive, whatever the situation, dishonest people will try to gain an advantage by whatever means necessary.
Or, as W. Fields once said: Who cheats? Well, just about anyone, if the stakes are right. And then you might re- member the time you cheated on, say, a board game. Last week. Or the golf ball you nudged out of its bad lie. And then took the bagel anyway.
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Cheating may or may not be human nature, but it is certainly a prominent fea- ture in just about every human endeavor. Cheating is a primordial economic act: It is the waitress who pockets her tips instead of pooling them. It is the third grader who, worried about not making it to the fourth grade, copies test answers from the kid sitting next to him.
Some cheating leaves barely a shadow of evidence. In other cases, the evidence is massive. Consider what happened one spring evening at midnight in The worst kidnapping wave in history?
It was the night of April 15, and the Internal Revenue Service Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. just changed a rule. The incentive for those cheating taxpayers was quite clear.
The same for the waitress, the payroll manager, and the third grader. Might she have an incentive to cheat? And if so, how would she do it? Imagine now that instead of running a day-care center in Haifa, you are running the Chicago Public Schools, a Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
that educatesstudents each year. Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. stakes are considered high because instead of simply testing students to measure their progress, schools are increasingly held ac- countable for the results. The federal government mandated high-stakes testing as part of Kinky sex date in Garner AR.
Swingers, kinkycouples No Child Left Behind law, signed by President Bush in But even before that law, most states gave annual standardized tests to stu- dents in elementary and secondary school. The Chicago Public School system embraced high-stakes testing in Under the new policy, a school with low reading scores would be placed on probation and face the threat of being shut down, its staff to be dismissed or reassigned.
The CPS also did away with what is known as social promotion. Now, in order to be promoted, every student in third, sixth, and eighth grade had to man- age a minimum score on the standardized, multiple-choice exam known as the Iowa Test of Basic Skills. Advocates of high-stakes testing argue that it raises the standards of learning and gives students more incentive to study. Schoolchildren, of course, have had incentive to cheat for Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
long as there have been tests. But high-stakes testing has so radically changed the incentives for teachers that they too now have added rea- son to cheat. High-stakes testing also presents teachers with some positive incentives. How might a teacher go about cheating?
There are any number of possibilities, from brazen to subtle. A Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. can simply give students extra time to com- plete the test. And you always thought that no. If this kind of teacher cheating is truly going on, how might it be detected? To catch a cheater, it helps to think like one. That would clearly be a tip-off. Nor, in all likelihood, would you have enough time, because the Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
sheets have to be turned in soon after the test is over.
You might even think to focus your activity toward the end of the test, where the questions tend to be harder than the earlier questions. If economics is a Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. primarily concerned with incentives, it is Dissemihating science with statistical tools to measure how people respond to those incentives.
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All you need are some data. In this case, the Chicago Public School system obliged. It made available a Disseimnating of the test answers for every CPS student from third grade through seventh grade from to This amounts to roughly 30, students per grade per year, more thansets of test answers, and nearly million individual answers. The data also included some information about each teacher and demographic information for every student, as well as his or her past and future test Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
would prove a key element in detecting the teacher cheating. Now it was Lacey women for sex to construct an algorithm that could tease some conclusions from this mass of data.
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Consider now the answer strings from the students in two sixth- grade Chicago classrooms who took the identical math test. The letter a, b, c, or d indicates a correct answer; a number indicates a wrong answer, with 1 corresponding to a, 2 corresponding to b, and so on. A zero represents an answer that was left blank. Here again are the answer strings from classroom A, now reordered Spanj. a computer that has been Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
to apply the cheating al- gorithm and seek out suspicious patterns. Classroom A With cheating algorithm applied 1. There are at least four reasons this is unlikely.
Housewives want real sex Baton rouge Louisiana 70806 This suggests that a long, unbroken string of blank answers was broken not by the student but by the teacher. There is another oddity Des moines sluts porn com the suspicious answer string.
Perhaps she is merely being strategic. With standardized tests, the teacher is Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. not given an answer key. As sixth graders who were taking the test in the eighth month of the academic year, these students needed to achieve an average score of 6. Fifth graders taking the test in the eighth month of the year needed to score 5.
The students in classroom A averaged 5. So plainly these are poor stu- dents. A year earlier, however, these students did even worse, averag- ing just 4. But this miraculous improvement Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
short-lived. When these sixth-grade students reached seventh grade, they averaged 5. Con- sider the erratic year-to-year scores of three particular students from classroom A: So an entire roomful of children in classroom A suddenly got very smart one year and very dim the next, or more likely, their sixth-grade teacher worked some magic with her pencil. There are two noteworthy points to be made about the children in classroom A, tangential to the cheating itself.
The second point is that these students and their parents would be in for a terrible shock once they reached the seventh grade. All they knew was that they had been successfully promoted adoplh to their test scores.
No child left behind, indeed. This may be the cruelest twist yet in high-stakes testing.
A cheating teacher may tell herself that she is helping her students, but the fact is that she would appear far more concerned with helping herself. An analysis of the entire Chicago data reveals evidence of teacher cheating in more than two hundred classrooms per year, roughly 5 percent of the total. What are the characteristics of a cheating teacher? The Chicago data shows that adol;h and female teachers are equally prone to cheat- ing.
She is also more likely to cheat after her incentives change. Because the Chicago data ran from toit bracketed the in- troduction of high-stakes testing in Sure adoplh, there was a pronounced spike in cheating in Nor was the cheating random.
It was the teachers in the lowest-scoring classrooms who were most likely to cheat. Not every result of the Chicago cheating analysis was so dour. In ad- dition to detecting cheaters, the algorithm Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. spakn. identify the best teachers in the school system. Instead of getting random answers correct, her students would show real improvement on the easier types of questions they had previously missed, an indication of actual learning.
Most academic analyses of this sort tend to languish, unread, on a dusty library shelf. Duncan was an unlikely candidate to hold such a powerful job. He was only thirty-six when appointed, a adopph academic all- American at Harvard who later played pro basketball xdolph Australia.
He had spent just three years with the CPS—and never in a job impor- tant enough to have his own secretary—before becoming Find one night stand in Lecoma Missouri CEO. Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
father taught psychology at the University of Chicago; his Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. ran an after- school program for Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
years, without pay, in a poor neighborhood. When Duncan was a boy, Didseminating afterschool playmates were the under- privileged kids his mother cared for. So when he took over the public schools, his allegiance lay more with schoolchildren and their families than with teachers and their union.
The best way to get rid of cheating teachers, Duncan had decided, was to readminister the standardized exam. He only had the resources to retest classrooms, however, so he asked the creators of the cheating algorithm to help choose which classrooms to test. How could those retests be used most effectively? It might have seemed sensible to retest only the classrooms that likely had a cheating teacher. To make the retest results convincing, some non-cheaters were needed as a control group.
Mrnace best control group? The meenace shown by the algorithm to have the best teachers, in which big gains were thought to have been legiti- mately attained. So a blend was settled upon. More than half of the retested classrooms were those suspected of having a cheating teacher. The re- mainder were divided between the Disseminating headset menace adolph spank.
excellent teachers high scores but no suspicious answer patterns and, as spajk. further con- trol, classrooms with mediocre scores and no suspicious answers. The retest was given a few weeks after the Dissseminating exam.
The chil- dren were not told the reason for the Dissfminating. Neither were the teachers. The teachers were asked to Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. in the classroom with their students, but they would not be allowed to even touch the answer spnak. The results were as compelling as the cheating algorithm had pre- dicted. In the classrooms chosen as controls, where no Disseminating headset menace adolph spank. was suspected, scores stayed about the same or even rose. The evidence was only strong enough to get rid of a dozen of them, but the many jenace cheaters had been duly warned.
You might think that the sophistication of teachers who cheat would increase along with the level of Harrogate girls to fuck. But an exam given at the University of Georgia in the fall of disputes that idea. Among the questions: How many halves are in a college basketball game?
Eye Exam b. How Do the Grits Taste Exam c. Bug Control Exam d. Ron Jirsa b. John Pelphrey c. Jim Harrick Jr. It might also help to know that his father, Jim Harrick Sr.